The 2020s have marked a period of unprecedented disruption for liner shipping, which in turn has created the conditions for the greatest earnings the sector has ever recorded. Quantifying how this disruption – whether it be covid, the drought in Panama, or the Red Sea shipping crisis – equates to freight rates increasing has hitherto be an inexact science. However, a working paper for the World Bank has managed to crunch the numbers via a newly launched Global Supply Chain Stress Index (GSCSI).
Developed by Jean-François Arvis, Cordula Rastogi, Jean-Paul Rodrigue, and Daria Ulybina, the index shows that each 1m teu of the container trades coming under stress increases the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) – a leading spot indicator – by $2,300 per teu (see chart below).
The index derives from Automatic Identification System tracking data. It calculates the equivalent stalled ship capacity measured in teu, providing data at the port, country, regional, and global levels.
“Regardless of the cause, delays, or rerouting mean that disruption diffuses at a global scale,” the creators of the new index stated.
The SCFI has peaked over the past month, dropping by another 115 points today to 3332.67 points. For most of 2024, the index has been at highs never experienced outside the covid era.
The SCFI increases by $2,300 for every 1m teu coming under stress
One liner who clearly thinks the market remains robust is Maersk. The Danish carrier yesterday upped its full-year financial guidance for the second time in two months, citing the continued supply chain disruption caused by the situation in the Red Sea, which Maersk now expects to continue “at least” until the end of 2024, coupled with what it described as ongoing “robust” container market demand
On the horizon, the next potential major disruption for liner shipping is a strike on the US east coast with talks between port operators and dockworkers breaking down recently.
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